摘要：

中国油气资源分布广泛，开发潜力大，发展速度快，但页岩气、致密油等非常规油气资源的勘探开发仍处于初期阶段。随着国内油气能源需求量的持续增长，深部非常规油气资源的开采已成为国家能源工程领域重点关注的问题。然而，非常规油气开采工程普遍涉及向深部地层大规模注入流体。流体注入会扰动原岩应力场，改变地下断层的应力状态，可能导致断层失稳滑移并诱发地震灾害。因此，评估与预防此类人为工程扰动诱发地震风险，已成为实现资源安全可持续开发的关键课题。近年来，全球多个深部能源工程在开采阶段均监测到地震事件，经震后分析表明，这些地震与注入流体扰动断层失稳之间存在显著的时空关联。例如，韩国浦项和瑞士巴塞尔的地热项目，就因诱发显著地震而被迫中止。事实上，我国油气田地质条件更为复杂，断层滑移失稳条件、滑移模式和滑移量难以准确预判，断层发育区附近开采施工参数难以确定。为了在非常规油气资源开发中实现收益与风险的平衡，当前深部能源开采所引发的环境地质问题及其伴生地震灾害的预测与防治是亟待攻克的问题。本文通过梳理国内外能源开发工程中典型的诱发地震案例，重点分析了开发现场断层滑移失稳的应力条件与诱发机理，总结了断层滑移失稳模式，诱发地震判据、地震影响范围和震级预测模型，讨论了开发过程中人为工程扰动和环境地质因素对诱发地震事件的影响。最后，本研究总结了当前研究中亟待解决的主要问题与技术挑战，并从数值模拟、实验方法及现场监测3个方向对未来研究进行了展望。本研究可以推动油气开发作业诱发地震的基础认知，对减少或避免潜在地震灾害的发生具有实际意义和工程价值。

关键词: 油气开发工程, 水力压裂, 断层滑移, 诱发地震, 地震预测模型

Abstract:

China possesses vast and widely distributed oil and gas resources, characterized by significant development potential and rapid growth in their exploitation. However, the exploration and development of unconventional resources such as shale gas and tight oil remain at an early stage. As domestic demand for oil and gas continues to rise, the extraction of deep unconventional resources has consequently become a major focus in national energy engineering. A common practice in unconventional oil and gas production involves large-scale fluid injection into deep geological formations. Such injection disturbs the in-situ stress field and alters the stress state of subsurface faults, which may lead to fault instability, slip, and subsequently induced seismicity. Therefore, evaluating and mitigating such anthropogenic seismic risks has become a critically important issue for achieving safe and sustainable resource development. In recent years, seismic events have been monitored during the production phases of multiple deep energy projects worldwide. Post-earthquake analyses indicate a clear spatiotemporal correlation between these events and fault activation or instability triggered directly by fluid injection. Notable examples include geothermal projects in Pohang, South Korea, and Basel, Switzerland, which were suspended due to significant induced earthquakes. In fact, geological conditions in China’s oil and gas fields are often more complex, making it difficult to accurately predict fault slip conditions, specific slip patterns, and displacement, or to determine optimal operational parameters near fault-developed zones. To balance benefits and risks in unconventional resource development, predicting and preventing the associated environmental geological issues and seismic hazards caused by deep energy extraction has become an urgent challenge. This study reviews typical cases of induced seismicity in energy projects globally, with a focus on analyzing the underlying stress conditions and the detailed triggering mechanisms of fault instability and slip at development sites. It systematically summarizes fault slip instability modes, established criteria for induced seismicity, estimated affected ranges, and current magnitude prediction models. The influence of both anthropogenic engineering factors and inherent environmental geological conditions on induced seismic events during development is also thoroughly discussed. Finally, this study summarizes the major unresolved issues and key technical challenges that need to be addressed in current research, and outlines potential future research directions through three primary approaches: numerical simulation, experimental methods, and enhanced field monitoring. The work contributes to a deeper fundamental understanding of human induced seismicity from oil and gas operations, and holds practical implications and considerable engineering value for mitigating or preventing potential seismic hazards.

Key words: oil and gas development projects, hydraulic fracturing, fault slip, induced earthquake, seismic prediction models

中图分类号: 

• TB12

• P642