摘要：

二氧化碳高值利用技术作为高潜力低碳能源技术，是我国碳中和技术体系中的重要技术组成，但仍处于技术早期阶段，面临技术迭代不确定性强、市场接受度低、经济成本高昂等系统性挑战与现实性制约。本研究从技术、经济和产业格局视角全面综述了我国二氧化碳高值利用产业在“双碳”目标下面临的机遇与挑战。研究表明：①从我国整体上看，二氧化碳高值利用的市场需求潜力大，但产量增长趋势尚难以满足不断增长的需求。甲烷与甲醇是经济性最强的两种二氧化碳高值利用产品，过去15年间中国天然气和甲醇的终端需求量分别增长了13倍和4倍。②从技术视角看，4条高成熟度技术路线包括二氧化碳加氢制甲醇、热催化制甲烷、生物质制甲烷和生物法制甲烷。绿色甲醇技术路线需依赖绿电供给与电氢协调配合，当前成本仍远高于传统甲醇路线，达成经济与技术可行性仍需借助能源系统的绿氢大规模低成本介入。③从资源潜力视角看，仅30%的省份同时具有较高的生物质资源潜力和二氧化碳排放量，制定区域协同的二氧化碳高值利用规划需考虑生物质资源和二氧化碳排放的空间差异化分布。④从未来挑战上看，经济核算体系、数据监管体系与工程建设体系是当前挑战集中的方面，并分别面临全链条经济性评价与多维评价框架缺失，原始数据监测困难与工程建设复杂性强等具体挑战。研究建议我国重视二氧化碳高值利用相关的宏观制度体系建设与多层级政策设计保障，并考虑技术成熟度、区域差异性与绿色化工特点开展技术的精准支持；加快交叉学科复合型紧缺人才培养体系建设与关键核心技术攻关，重视中小企业发挥的作用提升“校—企”合作质量；科学规划长期渐进式发展路线图，针对先进技术开展动态前瞻性评估。本研究也为其他处于成熟早期阶段的低碳能源技术借助技术、经济和产业多维度变革突破技术鸿沟提供了借鉴思路。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 二氧化碳高值利用, 技术成熟度, 经济性分析, 政策建议

Abstract:

High-value CO₂ utilization technologies are emerging low-carbon energy technologies, which constitute an important part of China’s carbon neutrality technology system. Since they are still in the early stage of development, they face systematic challenges such as high technological progress uncertainties, low market acceptance, and high economic costs. This study reviews the opportunities and challenges of high-value CO₂ utilization technologies from the perspectives of technological, economic, and industrial landscape. Results indicate that: (ⅰ) From a macro-level perspective, the rising demand of high-value CO₂ utilization may surpass the growing trend of existing supply capacity. Methane and methanol are the main products of high-value CO₂ utilization technologies. Over the past 15 years, China’s end-use demand for natural gas and methanol has increased 13-fold and fourfold, respectively. (ⅱ) From technology perspective, four mature technology paths include CO₂ hydrogenation to methanol, thermo-catalytic production of methane, biomass-to-methane, and biogenic methane synthesis. Green methanol production pathways depend on a reliable supply of renewable electricity and coordinated electricity-hydrogen integration. Their costs remain substantially higher than those of conventional methanol production, and achieving economic and technical feasibility will require the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen within the energy system. (ⅲ) From the perspective of resources potential, only 30% of the provinces have both high-level potential for biomass and CO₂. Considering the potential of biomass and CO₂ from the perspective of the spatial heterogeneity is essential during the regional planning of coordinated high-value CO₂ utilization development policies. (ⅳ) From the perspective of future challenges, the economic accounting system, data monitoring system, and engineering construction system face the non-negligible challenges. Specifically, they face the lack of full-chain economic assessments and multidimensional evaluation frameworks, difficulties in monitoring primary data, and high engineering complexity, respectively. The study puts forward three policy suggestions. Firstly, the government should put emphasis on the national macro-level mechanism design and multi-level policy support for the high-value CO₂ utilization industry, while providing targeted assistance for relevant technologies based on their technological maturity, regional differences, and the characteristics of green chemical production. Secondly, the construction of a cross-disciplinary education system and breakthroughs in core technologies should be accelerated, while recognizing the role of small and medium-sized enterprises and improving the quality of university-industry collaboration. Thirdly, developing a scientifically grounded, long-term, phased development roadmap and conduct dynamic, forward-looking assessments for advanced technologies. This study provides implications for other early-stage technologies to overcome the bottlenecks through technological, economic and industrial innovation efforts.

Key words: dual-carbon goals, high-value CO₂ utilization technologies, technological maturity, economic analysis, policy suggestions