摘要：

在全球气候变化治理与低碳转型背景下，能源产品国际贸易中隐含碳排放问题日益受到关注。油品作为典型的高碳能源商品，其在跨区域流通过程中的碳排放核算、驱动机制与责任分担问题亟待系统研究。在投入产出理论的基础上，对中国与主要贸易伙伴国油品贸易中蕴含的碳排放量进行量级分析，进一步探究其结构特性，结合结构分解分析(SDA)识别了影响隐含碳变动的关键因素，从而探讨区域间碳排放责任的划分路径。研究发现，中国油品出口贸易伴随一定规模的隐含碳排放流动，且碳排放呈现结构性增长趋势；隐含碳的变动主要受出口规模效应和结构效应共同驱动，但技术效应在一定程度上缓解了碳排放增长压力；近年来结构效应对隐含碳增长的拉动作用有所增强，表明优化出口产品结构对于油品贸易低碳转型具有重要意义。基于研究结论，提出了针对性的政策建议：在国家层面，要优化贸易结构与技术升级，加速国内能源结构的转型；在国际层面，要推动公平责任分担与合作，并且加强碳排放数据的共享与透明化建设，推动各国间在碳信息采集、核算方法、指标体系等方面实现标准统一与互通互认。

关键词: 油品贸易, 隐含碳排放, 投入产出分析, 结构分解法, 碳责任划分

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of global climate governance and the transition toward low-carbon development, increasing attention has been paid to carbon emissions embodied in international trade in energy products. As a typical carbon-intensive commodity, oil products pose pressing challenges in terms of carbon accounting, driving mechanisms, and responsibility allocation along cross-regional trade flows. Based on input-output theory, this study quantitatively estimates the embodied carbon emissions associated with China’s oil product trade with its major trading partners and further examines their structural characteristics. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed to identify the key drivers behind changes in embodied carbon emissions and to explore feasible approaches for allocating carbon emission responsibilities across regions. The results indicate that, first, China’s oil product exports are accompanied by a considerable scale of embodied carbon flows, with carbon emissions exhibiting a structurally increasing trend. Second, changes in embodied carbon emissions are jointly driven by export scale effects and structural effects, while technological effects partially offset the upward pressure on carbon emissions. Finally, the contribution of structural effects to embodied carbon growth has intensified in recent years, underscoring the importance of optimizing export product structures for the low-carbon transition of oil product trade. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted policy implications. At the national level, efforts should focus on optimizing trade structures and promoting technological upgrading to accelerate the transformation of the domestic energy mix. At the international level, it is necessary to advance equitable responsibility sharing and cooperation, while enhancing data sharing and transparency in carbon emissions, thereby promoting harmonization and mutual recognition of standards in carbon data collection, accounting methodologies, and indicator systems across countries.

Key words: oil product trade, embodied carbon emissions, input-output analysis, structural decomposition analysis, carbon responsibility allocation

中图分类号: 

• F752.6

• X196